It’s a big off-season for Joe Dumars.
On one hand, he’s escaped a lot of criticism by winning a Championship. On the other hand, he’s gotten a lot more criticism than he deserved because he passed on Carmelo, D-Wade, and Bosh (and later in that same draft he passed on Barbosa and Josh Howard). He did, however, make great signings in Antonio McDyess and Chauncey Billups, traded for Rip Hamilton, Ben Wallace, and Rasheed Wallace, and drated Mehmet Okur and Tayshaun Prince. For some reason, though, I feel he will always be judged on what he does this off-season.
First thing Dumars has to do is re-sign Chauncey Billups. He needs to do this before the draft so they can move on and not look for a starting PG (despite possibly not being “officially” not able to do it until after). Billups will be 31 next season and while his 3-Point percentage dropped below 40% this year, he still put up 17 PPG and 7 APG. He will likely get a 4-year, $52 million deal.
The other person with a player option/restricted free agent is Antonio McDyess. He played great for the Pistons this year, but after another heart-breaking season, will he opt to stay on the team? I say he won’t, instead looking for a more stable situation (i.e. Spurs/Cavs/Bulls/Suns/Rockets/Mavericks/Heat) that gives him a 2-3 year deal, guaranteed (even if for less money per year than he would have made staying with the Pistons). I also think Flip Murray will opt out to get a longer deal and they should let Will Blalock walk, too. Amir Johnson, their NBDL stud, is a restricted free agent and should get a Kendrick Perkins type of deal. Chris Webber is the only question mark- you have to assume he isn’t looking for big money and with McDyess leaving, there already is space for Maxiell- but I see them letting Webber go/Webber wants one last contract and Detroit just doesn’t need him at this point. Especially with Amir Johnson possibly stepping up.
That puts the Pistons over the Cap, but well below the Luxury Tax (even if McDyess and Murray stay, they will be right under the Tax and probably right at it with their draft picks, so no worries there- they just can’t sign any free agents). The question now will be who to trade? Hamilton and Prince have logged many good minutes for the team, but Prince had a very shaky Cavs series. Tayshaun is only 2 years younger than Rip, but Rip seems to me much more consistent and more valuable a player (despite Tayshaun’s better defensive game). But they are both locked into reasonable contracts and I wouldn’t move either of them.
The 2 men everyone will be looking at to get rid of are Rasheed Wallace and Flip Saunders (who really has a bad haircut). I really don’t see both of them coming back and possibly neither of them. The team turned on Flip both this year and last year and when an NBA coach has lost the ears of their players he is usually soon shown the door. As for Rasheed, he quit on his team and acted like the old Rasheed. Not many teams will be out there for him, despite only 2 years left on his deal (about $26 million). Players like Zach Randolph at least had problems off the court- Rasheed did it ON the court. No one wants that.
Honestly, I only see Dumars being able to trade Rasheed- if he wants to (I think Rasheed is their best player)- to the Knicks or Lakers. The Knicks could offer a package of Channing Frye, Nate Robinson, Malik Rose and this year’s 23rd overall pick for Rasheed, but if I’m Detroit I would want to get out of Nazr Mohammed’s contract as well (4 years and about $25 million left). That would mean having to get Steve Francis back in return instead of Malik Rose, though. I don’t think the Pistons want $33.5 million tied up for the next two years with a back-up combo guard (which they will be getting for much cheaper in Nate Robinson anyway). As for the Lakers, the key would be getting Kwame Brown’s expiring deal and Andrew Bynum. Lamar Odom would be nice- but I’m not sure that trade gets accepted by the Lakers. Plus Lamar would be playing the 4 in Detroit with Tayshaun already at the 3. And I’m not sure the Lakers would even give up Bynum to appease Kobe for 2 years (when he can opt out anyway).
So, in the end, I don’t trade anyone (even Nazr because, realistically, no one will take him and I don’t really want to give up a draft pick along with him just in order to save cap space because I don’t really need that cap relief)- and I fire Flip Saunders. It’s a player’s league, there’s no mistaking that, and Flip has run out of good favor with the players in Detroit. You get a coach in there like Jeff Van Gundy and you slow up the league again. Van Gundy can deal with Rasheed for a couple of years and by then you’ll hopefully be offering Jason Maxiell an extension and letting Rasheed walk (or trade his expiring deal next off-season).
This leaves the roster, basically, the same:
G - Chauncey Billups (pending re-sign)
G - Lindsey Hunter
G - Rip Hamilton
G - Carlos Delfino
G - Ronald Dupree
F - Tayshaun Prince
F - Rasheed Wallace
F - Jason Maxiell
F - Amir Johnson (pending re-sign)
C - Nazr Mohammed
That is already a potential 1-seed again in the East and no less than the 5-seed (Chicago and Cleveland are in their division). Now you move to the Draft with the 15th and 27th overall picks and you are just drafting roll players- or, what I think they should do, trade the picks to move up a few slots (Philly, NO, or Atlanta) and select Jeff Green or Al Thornton, someone who probably won’t be there at 15 and someone who can help you now with quality bench minutes (and it won’t tie up guaranteed money to 2 players for a few years). I’ll say Jeff Green. Then take D.J. Strawberry, Sean Singletary, or Aaron Brooks late in the 2nd Round. I’ll go with Strawberry here (anyone who can play defense can play for Jeff Van Gundy).
So this leaves your starters at:
G - Chauncey Billups
G - Rip Hamilton
F - Tayshaun Prince
F - Rasheed Wallace
F - Jason Maxiell
With experience in Nazr or Lindsey Hunter off the bench and younger guys like Jeff Green, Carlos Delfino, and Amir Johnson putting in big minutes, too. This leaves you with a team with a bright future (if developed), but still a chance at the 2008 NBA title, which is all you can ever really ask for.
But first you need stability within the organization (head coach) and then you can make a run for another Championship.
SPORTS AT RANDOM OFF-SEASON PREVIEWS:
UTAH JAZZ
CHICAGO BULLS
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
DENVER NUGGETS