Things need to change in Los Angeles this season.
With the Clippers.
This is unlikely to happen, but after next year, both Elton Brand and Corey Maggette could opt out of their contracts. Chris Kaman, Cuttino Mobley, Tim Thomas (only other players under contract in two years) and change couldn’t beat UCLA. There are no signs Elton would ever do that- he likes LA, he’s into the movie business now- that probably won’t happen, but have another year like last and we shall see. Corey Maggette, on the other hand, has openly fought with Coach Dunleavy and only got the playing time he deserved towards the end of the season.
This team was 1 win away (1 bad substitution away) from the Conference Finals last year. Now after a year in which they gave a couple of big contracts out, the Clippers need to set a new direction. They held on to oft-injured blue-chip Shaun Livingston and now he will be recovering from major (major is an understatement) knee surgery, possibly, all next year. Court leader Sam Cassell barely played after the All-Star break and he’s in the last year of his contract (career) anyway.
First thing that must be done is to have someone work with Chris Kaman in the off-season. Kaman got a huge contract in the off-season last year after he had been steadily getting better each year of his career. Then, suddenly, he dropped off slightly last year (FG% was a big drop off). He also often played lazily and would never pass out of the post. He needs to learn when to take shots and when to be patient.
Elton Brand was criticized for having a big drop off in his production this year, but after watching the games and looking at his career stats, last year seemed like the anomaly, not this year. He’s going to give you 20 and 10. Every night, every year. Yes, sometimes he may give you 35 and 17, but that cannot be counted upon. His defense, especially his help/off the ball defense, seemed to really improve this year, so that is one plus. But expecting him to be an MVP Candidate every year, like he was in ‘05-06, is just not going to happen.
The one advantage of Shaun Livingston getting injured (if there is one) is that they can ride out his contract without giving him an extension and then get him on the cheap, while hoping he still pans out to be a great PG. He had all the skills except for a good shot and durability. He could still become a great player, but he’ll need to put on some more muscle.
One guy Livingston could talk to about putting on muscle is Corey Maggette. Dude’s got pythons. They’re huge. Even my girlfriend took notice (which caused me to spiral into a deep depression because it is IMPOSSIBLE to get as ripped as Maggette). Along with Elton, Maggette is your inside/outside combo that can cause damage, even in the West. Maggette can get to the rim anytime he wants, has an improving shot, and loves the ball in crunch time. He is one of the better offensive swingmen in the League (not that there’s a shortage of them). The problem with Corey is that he can’t play defense. For a guy his size, strength, and athleticism, he should be able to guard almost anybody, but guys like Kevin Martin drove by him continuously this year. He needs to improve there to get more playing time from Dunleavy, who seems to have it out for him for some reason (probably the lack of defensive effort and bad shot selection reasons, though).
Going into the draft, the roster looks like this:
PG - Sam Cassell (hurt always)
PG - Shaun Livingston (hurt)
SG - Quinton Ross (pick up team option)
SG - Cuttino Mobley
SF - Corey Maggette
PF - Tim Thomas
PF - Elton Brand
PF - Paul Davis
C - Chris Kaman
C - Aaron Williams
Obviously in need of a Point Guard. But other than that, looking at this roster, it doesn’t seem like anyone (other than a PG) will crack the rotation that they could get. Kaman, Thomas, and Brand are solid up front (with hopefully an emerging Paul Davis) and Cuttino, Ross, and Maggette get the large majority of the minutes at the swing positions. So unless you are trading one of them, I don’t see a mid-level guy (Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Jason Kapono, Earl Boykins, Amir Johnson, Andray Blatche, Morris Peterson, Mikki Moore) taking much of their minutes (obviously a PG would play more).
So it’s make a splash or stand pat and hope Maggette, Brand, and the new draft pick can get them into the Playoffs. Nobody is going to want Kaman and his contract, Mobley has too big of a deal, Livingston has lost almost all his value, and Sam Cassell is going to make it hard on you to trade him to someone who is just looking to dump salary. Maggette and the 14th overall draft pick seem to be your only trade pieces (assuming Brand is untradeable) and I think Maggette is undervalued on the market, therefore, you wouldn’t get much worth back (Chad Ford says Boris Diaw and 3 late 1st Rounders).
I say don’t make a big splash and try to keep on building. Elton Brand is the solid type of player that can be a cornerstone for a Championship team (despite how far away it seems the Clippers are from a ring). With the 14th pick, take the best player available, if that’s a PG in Acie Law IV, then fine, take him- but if Thaddeus Young or Al Thornton or Julian Wright or Yi Jianlian (unlikely) are available, take them. You can deal with your glut at the 3 at a later date. Realistically, only Thaddeus Young will possibly be available- so take him.
In the 2nd Round at 45, the idea would be to draft a PG if they didn’t get one in Round 1. Taurean Green would be the ideal pick, but he might not last this long. You could reach for Aaron Brooks here, but I’d rather go with the best player available, which would be someone like Jared Dudley, Nick Fazekas, or Alando Tucker. Fazekas would be the ideal guy here, but he likely won’t be available this late into the 2nd Round and you really don’t need another swingman, so I’d go for a shot in the dark. It’s the 2nd Round, you can take these risks. Go for Chinese PG Sun Yue. He’s bigger than Shaun Livingston and he apparently already likes the LA Nightlife.
The Clippers won’t likely have much to offer in free agency since they’ll be close to the Luxury Tax and Clippers owner Donald Sterling, who once sued a Hooker who was trying to blackmail him for money, is certainly not going to want to pay the tax. Your only hope is to find some veterans who will be able to put in quality minutes. Jason Hart did good at this last year, and would probably come back for a 3-year minimum deal. Other than that, there’s not much out there (that still keeps the Clips under the Tax). Despite being possibly the worst starter in the League (Jason Collins), maybe you ask Smush Parker to change locker rooms.
You go into the season with this roster:
PG - Jason Hart
SG - Cuttino Mobley
SF - Corey Maggette
PF - Elton Brand
C - Chris Kaman
Tim Thomas, Thaddeus Young, and Quinton Ross will be the first guys of the bench and get the majority of the minutes. Cassell and Smush will split the back up PG minutes until Shaun Livingston gets back or Sun Yue is ready to play. Then you hope Paul Davis progresses and only use Aaron Williams if there are injuries to your front line.
Now this team won’t get you a top 4 seed in the Playoffs, but it will keep you competitive until the All-Star break, which is when you’ll have to determine where you want to go. Is your draft pick your future? Can Elton Brand carry you all the way? Is Shaun Livingston coming back, and if so, will he develop into the leader you need him to be? You will know the answer to these questions better and then you can go ahead with your plans, leaving everyone (including Brand) available on the market.
This isn’t a make or break season for the Clippers- but it is one where they will have to choose which direction to take the team. And I say delay that decision as long as possible- until next February’s trading deadline.
SPORTS AT RANDOM OFF-SEASON PREVIEWS:
NEW YORK KNICKS
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
DETROIT PISTONS
UTAH JAZZ
CHICAGO BULLS
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
DENVER NUGGETS
