Kobe Bryant could be a huge problem in the New York Knicks’ off-season plans. There is no way the Lakers would trade him to the Knicks and take back the awful contracts they would have to in order to match salaries and the Knicks also just don’t have the top level talent needed to get Bryant. Knowing how Isiah Thomas could be holding out for Kobe, not making moves ALL off-season, I’m still forging ahead with the NEW YORK KNICKS OFF-SEASON PREVIEW:
I like to separate the Knicks players into 5 categories:
Channing Frye
David Lee
Nate Robinson
Renaldo Balkman
Mardy Collins
Randolph Morris (free agent rookie contract)
Eddy Curry (4 years, $40.4 million)
Jamal Crawford (4 years, $36 million)
Quentin Richardson (3 years, $26.3 million)
Stephon Marbury (2 years, $42 million)
Jared Jeffries (4 years, $25 million)
Malik Rose (2 years, $14.75 million)
Jerome James (3 years, $18.6 million)
Steve Francis (2 years, $33.6 million)
There is a glut of young talent on this team and too many awful contracts. The goal this off-season should be to get a quality player while using a couple young guys to get rid of one or two awful contracts.
Now with Allan Houston, Jalen Rose, Mo Taylor, Shandon Anderson, and Junk Yard Dog all off the Cap (also all players who didn’t play a minute for the Knicks last season), the Knicks actually are moving towards a reasonable payroll- not that they will ever get there, though, so no use in trying, right?
Well, to an extent. It would be fine to stay far above the Luxury Tax if it was for people who deserved the money. Like the sign-and-trade for Eddy Curry (which I discussed here). On the other hand, signing Jerome James and Jared Jeffries to mid-level deals have little to no value. The Knicks have used their mid-level exception to sign mediocre or awful players to long-term, overpaid deals. In fact- there really has been no huge success of a mid-level exception player. Antonio McDyess is by far the best contributor of any of the dozen or so players who signed a mid-level deal. Many of the others have been awful (Jerome James), hurt (Vladimir Radmanovic), or always rumored to be traded (Mike James, Nazr Mohammed). Basically, all the mid-level has done is created more mediocre, overpaid players. (San Antonio, on the other hand, split their mid-level last year between Jackie Butler and Francisco Elson and Butler became a bust, but Elson contributed much more than most mid-level guys have been- so they signed them to shorter deals (2 and 3 year), spread their risk out, and it worked for them)
The Knicks need to decide right now which way they are going to try to build their team: Either by continuing to spend as much as possible and try to build by draft picks and by other teams signing and trading with them OR try to actually have Cap space eventually to sign some free agents and only pay the players that deserve it. This way would take until 2010 to actually get under the cap, but it’s not like they won’t be competitive until then. The other way is clearly not working. They haven’t had a winning record since 2001 (when the free spending started). But it’s not even one way or another that needs to happen- it’s just spending money with a conscience. If Dolan doesn’t have one, there’s no way Isiah is going to.
The argument for the Knicks to sign another person to a mid-level deal is not a bad one. Even if there really isn’t any great mid-level guys this year (Jerry Stackhouse, Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Chris Webber, Luke Walton, Jason Kapono, Desmond Mason, Morris Peterson), the Knicks can just use it and hope someone develops into a good role player on the team. And in 4 years, they will be valuable again with an expiring contract. This is a positive way you can look at the free spending ways of Isiah and Dolan, but Jerome James has just been an extra weight for this team to carry. Jared Jeffries may have stunted the growth of Renaldo Balkman (he didn’t because Q and many others got injured). The Knicks just don’t need to spend that money. They have plenty of players. If they can sign someone to a 1 or 2 year deal (like the Spurs did), then by all means, overpay them for that short length of time- but we all know Isiah is going to try to give Melvin Ely a 5-year, $30 million deal.
So, moving on to the actual off-season preview, we start with a sign-and-trade. Jermaine O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, and Kevin Garnett are not coming to New York- but one guy that has been rumored to go there that is actually feasible is Rashard Lewis. New Sonics GM Sam Presti is going to draft Kevin Durant. Rashard Lewis is not going to re-sign with them and Sam Presti is not going to have one of his first moves be losing Rashard Lewis without getting anything back. So he will explore the market of a sign-and-trade (already probably happening). Houston is high on Lewis, but they really have nothing to offer. They aren’t going to give up Shane Battier for him (nor would Seattle really want him) and no one else on their roster (that’s available) would really be of any interest to the Sonics. Many other teams will try to wait it out because they know Seattle is drafting Durant.
That leaves the Knicks. They have 6 players under my “Rookie Contracts” section that all are somewhat promising. There is no way all 6 players will be getting significant minutes on a successful Knicks team. All of them will not develop into big time players. It is time to put a couple of them together and use them as trade bait when they are worth something, rather than letting them develop into role players that you will eventually overpay (best case scenario). A package of Channing Frye, Nate Robinson, and Malik Rose should do it. Rose is just a salary throw in to get around the $12 million Lewis is sure to get with the Knicks.
I want to say that Presti will be desperate to get anything back for Lewis and that Channing Frye and Robinson will be enough, but Presti was a Rhodes Scholar nominee- and Isiah Thomas is Isiah Thomas. There will surely have to be a 1st Round Pick in this deal, but it won’t be this year’s. Ideally, Isiah would have learned his lesson about not protecting picks and it would be a 2008 top 10 protected pick, or 2009 top 3 protected, or a 2010 unprotected 1st Round Pick.
It truly might end up being this year’s 23rd overall pick, but with the likelihood of next year’s pick being much higher than that and with the desperation to not lose Lewis for nothing that I’m expecting, I think Nate Robinson, Channing Frye, Malik Rose, and a future 1st Rounder should do it for Lewis.
So, going into the draft, the Knicks would be clearly looking to go big with their only pick. Someone with some athleticism like Sean Williams, Jason Smith, Josh McRoberts, or even a skilled big man like Glen Davis. A true center is going to be the hardest to come by, so I’ll say they take Sean Williams, who will guarantee himself some playing time just by being adequate defensively right away.
These two moves, along with some small signings like bringing Mike Sweetney back (assuming he’s under 400 pounds) and signing Jason Hart to a veteran minimum multi-year deal, will finish up the Knicks’ off-season. This will still leave them with some bad contracts, but waiting until next off-season when they are expiring will possible net them a bigger fish than Rashard Lewis and, realistically, no one is going to take on Steve Francis contract, or Jerome James’, or Jared Jeffries’- unless you include David Lee in the deal, which I’m strongly against. Eddy Curry has proven to be a great offensive player, but he lacks the rebounding skill you would expect from a guy his side. A guy like Lee and a defensive back-up like Sean Williams is the perfect combo to play alongside Curry, not to mention the possible development of Randolph Morris as a key contributor.
The Knicks line-up would then look like this opening day of the 2007-8 season:
PG - Stephon Marbury
SG - Jamal Crawford
SF - Rashard Lewis
PF - David Lee
C - Eddy Curry
The Knicks will be very deep at the swing position - Quentin Richardson will be one of the more talented guys coming off the bench in the League (he will play the 2 often), while Jared Jeffries and Renaldo Balkman will add sufficient defensive minutes. Mardy Collins will back up Starbury and, as mentioned, Morris and Williams will get some minutes in the front court (along with Jeffries and Lewis, who will play sparingly at the 4, too). Then guys like Jason Hart or Jerome James or Mike Sweetney will be there if the Knicks have as many injuries as they did this year, which is highly unlikely.
As for Steve Francis, if Isiah doesn’t buy him out (which he definitely should not, just on the off-chance that they need his expiring deal next year to get KG or someone else), he is always a valuable guy to have in case of injuries. He obviously is not worth $16.5 million, but he still has some game left.
This team would have an outside shot at the Playoffs next year. Starbury will get the shooter he desired in Lewis, but Lewis is much more, offensively speaking, than just a shooter. And it would be the only major salary acquisition, so you still are on pace to be a player in the free agent market in two more off-seasons. Also, Eddy Curry will, theoretically, be even better, as will David Lee (and Mardy Collins and Randolph Morris and Renaldo Balkman).
But it will still be a struggle to make the playoffs- which will be strongly based on whether any of those starters lose significant time to injury (very plausible). 39-43, just missing it by a couple of games as the same 8 teams in the East make the 2008 Playoffs- but a step in the right direction.
SPORTS AT RANDOM OFF-SEASON PREVIEWS:
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
DETROIT PISTONS
UTAH JAZZ
CHICAGO BULLS
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
DENVER NUGGETS
